The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing COdos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.
Inclusion
There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO2 emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .
System dynamics modeling from urbanization lower than energy restrictions during the China
Even in the event urban extension carry out speed time usage 17,18,19 , the new automobile power explore is likely to associate negatively with the urbanization height due to economies away from scale 20,21,22 . For example, much more urbanized elements within the Canada ate straight down for every capita time 23 . On top of that, full opportunity use of rural house was bigger than regarding urban houses, because more than 85% of rural households fool around with ineffective solid fuel twenty-four . Based on Buyers Analysis Program, 275 metropolitan areas globally fool around with hydropower, 189 metropolises explore snap energy, and you will 184 metropolises use solar photovoltaic power. About one hundred towns and cities use renewable energy to attain 70% out of power, such as for example Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you will Nairobi. In america, 58 locations, along with Atlanta and you may Hillcrest, provides intends to transition so you’re able to a hundred% tidy and renewable energy. To the existing technology and effort shop, it is anticipated to achieve 100% renewable energy supply global and you may reach zero carbon dioxide pollutants because of the 2025. The worldwide electricity age group structure into the 2050 is expected since below: solar solar pv (69%), snap fuel (18%), hydropower (8%), and you can biomass (2%), having energy shop batteries coating 31% from energy request. It’s detailed that every of your earth’s largest dams and you can strength flowers have China, while Yunnan Province and you will Guizhou State contribute 29% of China’s hydropower. The latest Jinsha Lake by yourself keeps a beneficial nine-peak dam. The new strength generated by this type of hydropower was personally sent to Guangdong and you will Hong kong from the higher-current grid. Considering the abundant hydropower resources designed for cooling, Guizhou Province has getting China’s most critical investigation cardiovascular system ft. Inside 2018, Fruit Organization depending this new iCloud study center within the Guizhou. Almost every large They company off Asia have arranged investigation locations in the Guizhou, and additionally Alibaba, Huawei, and you may Asia Cellular.
Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO2 emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry interracialpeoplemeet login 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.