Because here be seemingly falls regarding the matrimony rate at the decades 59 and relevant rises at decades 60 for widows i next look at the Hypothesis 2 using the fashion in marriage counts contained in this two years old 60. This allows me to look at just how nearby the alteration during the choices might be. We fool around with matters in this research since no investigation could render reliable denominators to possess month-to-month costs. Just like the revealed in the greatest committee away from Shape 5, during the 1979 so you can 1995 several months brand new peak quantity of marriages to own widows in this 24-times diversity is the few days of one’s woman’s 60th birthday celebration, with especially large counts in the three months adopting the an effective female’s 60th birthday celebration. A-sharp reduction in the few months before their unique 60th birthday precedes which peak. It trend is similar, however as noticable on ages before the 1979 rules change.
One month before the 60th birthday celebration, the marriage number was 72 percent lower than the newest baseline day (this is actually the prominent departure regarding the baseline)
Panel A (descriptive statistics) signifies that from inside the 1979–1995 period, new peak amount of marriages for widows for the 24-month variety is the woman’s 60th birthday, with particularly highest matters about 90 days pursuing the good woman’s 60th birthday celebration. A-sharp decline in the few days before the 60th birthday precedes you to level. Which development is similar to, although not due to the fact noticable from the many years preceding the new 1979 rules changes.
Panel B descriptors: Y-axis = Percentage change from -a couple of years regarding 60th birthday celebration; Chilean fru X-axis = Days off 60th birthday (-23 due to +23).
Committee B (regression results) suggests that you will find ten weeks immediately after age 59 (60th birthday, +step 1, +2, +step 3, +8, +a dozen, +18, +22, +23, +a couple of years) where in fact the relationships counts are statistically and you may financially higher on the post-1979 laws several months in line with the fresh pre-1979 rules period. The fresh trend around the 60th birthday celebration try remarkable. This new matters throughout weeks preceding the new 60th birthday could be the same otherwise lower than the newest baseline times (couple of years before 60th birthday celebration). At exactly the same time, the amount of marriages on the 60th birthday celebration is actually 56 per cent greater than the baseline month. This type of counts is actually mathematically distinctive from both from the step one percent top. You to definitely, 2, and ninety days adopting the 60th birthday, the amount of marriages is still 52, 36, and you can 25 % more than new baseline month, recommending your marriage punishment when you look at the Personal Safety was really important for the ladies who are alongside decades 60. (Complete regression answers are found in Appendix Dining table step 3.)
Notes: Weighted quantity of ong widows on the few days and you may season classification. Speaking of just out-of states which were about MRA for the many years between 1968 and you may 1995 and this claimed earlier in the day marital updates on their marriage certificates. Select Appendix Table step 3 to have statistical need for personal coefficients.
I’ve twenty eight several years of research and rehearse the weeks contained in this couple of years of the 60th birthday, to own a total of 1,372 observations
ln ( marriage count month , year ) = ? + ? ? ( month ) + ? ? ( month * after 1979 law change ) + ? ? ( year ) + ? , where < month>
Our created changeable is the natural record of your month-to-month count out-of marriage ceremonies, according to this new 60th birthday. Our independent details were week dummies, with 2 yrs before the 60th birthday excluded; and you can a conversation between the few days dummies and you can perhaps the go out months is actually 1979 otherwise later. I include 12 months dummies so you’re able to take into account the possibility of a time development in marriage counts, toward omitted group of 1968.